Idol Bets

The market took a pretty strong shift towards David Cook with big selloffs coming from all the idols not named David. As things stand right now, Brooke and Syesha are dead. They stand little chance of cracking the top 3 and zero chance of the top two. The only major bets left at this point in the season are with David Cook and figuring out who will be number three and how much they’ll be worth when they are number three. With that said, here are the current market values:

DAVID ARCHULETA: 53-58
DAVID COOK: 33-38
JASON CASTRO: 2-4
CARLY SMITHSON: 1-3
SYESHA MERCADO: 1-3
BROOKE WHITE: 0-2

As you can see, Brooke has no resale value at all. Even if she survives this week, I doubt she’ll be able to push herself up past a $2 sell point. Same goes for Syesha, but she needs to move past a $3 sell point. Carly and Jason could both push their sell points beyond their current buys but will need to have two strong weeks coming up.

For my SimPicks this week, I’m tossing another $200 into the fray and doing it like this:

David Cook: 4 shares @ $38 = $152
Jason Castro: 5 shares @ $4 = $20
Carly Smithson: 9 shares @ $3 = $27

Cook is still the smartest choice. He still has room to grow in the top 2 and still has winning potential, which nets a $100 payout per share. Castro and Smithson are only worth investing in to see some growth if they can make the top three and net around a $5-6 sell value. Even that might be pushing it but it’s still worth the speculation.

I’m going to set this up like I have $700 to spend this season. I’m blocking off $200 to spend this week. Here are my picks:

Seven Idol Week Transactions

BUY: David Cook: 4 contracts @ $28 each. Total: $112

BUY: Jason Castro: 6 contracts @ $7 each. Total: $42

BUY: Brooke White: 5 contracts @ $5 each. Total: $25

BUY: Carly Smithson: 4 contracts @ $4 each. Total: $20

Total purchases: $199

Current Portfolio Value

Money Not Invested: $501

Money Invested: $149

Current Holdings:

Starting Value: $700

Current Value: $649

Net Gains: -$50 (-0.077%)

Closing Comments

The loss right now is due entirely to the spread (the fact that you can’t immediately sell for what you bought at). We’ll see how this progresses after tonight and tomorrow night. I’ll update tomorrow to see if anything is worth buying or selling as well as Thursday

Enjoy the show.