Idol Bets

I did not publish any picks yesterday for one main reason - the Idol market isn’t really worth investing in right now.  David Cook is at a 58-63 spread right now and I don’t see that improving drastically enough to take the risk of it lowering.  It’s still a two man race and it doesn’t seem like idol #3 is going to move up substantially enough to warrant further speculation.

Hold onto what you have for now, you might want to sell off a few Cook shares if you have them to book a quick profit but he still is the favorite to win and if that happens, each share is worth $100.

DialIdol has Archuleta, Casto, and White as potential bottom 2 candidates.  Syesha, posting a strong performance is listed at #1 with Cook at #2.  As I said previously, Archuleta is annoying.  He started annoying me way back in the 24 idol preliminary rounds.  I guess America is a bit behind my curve but it’s drawing closer every week.  I still think he’s a top 2 finalist but his chances of winning are dwindling every time he opens his mouth or makes one of his stupid faces or they show his psycho show-biz dad in the crowd.

The market took a pretty strong shift towards David Cook with big selloffs coming from all the idols not named David. As things stand right now, Brooke and Syesha are dead. They stand little chance of cracking the top 3 and zero chance of the top two. The only major bets left at this point in the season are with David Cook and figuring out who will be number three and how much they’ll be worth when they are number three. With that said, here are the current market values:

DAVID ARCHULETA: 53-58
DAVID COOK: 33-38
JASON CASTRO: 2-4
CARLY SMITHSON: 1-3
SYESHA MERCADO: 1-3
BROOKE WHITE: 0-2

As you can see, Brooke has no resale value at all. Even if she survives this week, I doubt she’ll be able to push herself up past a $2 sell point. Same goes for Syesha, but she needs to move past a $3 sell point. Carly and Jason could both push their sell points beyond their current buys but will need to have two strong weeks coming up.

For my SimPicks this week, I’m tossing another $200 into the fray and doing it like this:

David Cook: 4 shares @ $38 = $152
Jason Castro: 5 shares @ $4 = $20
Carly Smithson: 9 shares @ $3 = $27

Cook is still the smartest choice. He still has room to grow in the top 2 and still has winning potential, which nets a $100 payout per share. Castro and Smithson are only worth investing in to see some growth if they can make the top three and net around a $5-6 sell value. Even that might be pushing it but it’s still worth the speculation.

Mariah Carey week. Should make for some very interesting play outside the top 2. The girls (especially Carly) could end up with some strong performances if they play their cards right. Castro could struggle. Here is the run down:

BLUE CHIPS

David Archuleta

Archuleta remains at the top of the market with a strong 57-62 spread. The market clearly thinks he’s the favorite, but he’s not bulletproof. His personality is grating and his repertoire limited. Not much else needs to be said at this point. Archuleta is a HOLD.

David Cook

This year’s “dark horse” slipped up bad last week but steered clear of the bottom three again - a VERY good sign for him. His prices continue to rise, as Cook is now sitting on a 23-28 spread. Hopefully you got in weeks ago when he was buying at $3 or $6. I think Cook has a strong chance at being no less than a 35% favorite to win if he makes the top two (and likely a 40-45% favorite), so he’s still a STRONG BUY candidate.

MID CAPS

Jason Castro

A story/photo popped up today about Jason Castro: “Jason Castro May Smoke Weed”

I know, alarming. Jason Castro may smoke weed in the same way that the Yankees may play baseball or that Paula Abdul may spend 50% of her life barbiturated.

Jason is sitting on a 5-7 spread today, placing him at number three in the market but not even close to #2. Jason has strong top 3 potential. The #3 contestant will be interesting this year. With Archuleta and David Cook maintaining a stronghold on the top 2 and with Kristy Lee and Syesha as lame ducks, it’s a three way race for 2nd runner up. Castro is unique enough to distinguish himself from the others and talented enough to deserve to be there. At $7 / contract, Castro is still a decent buy candidate with a potential target spread of 12-15.

Mariah Carey Factor : Castro could slip up this week pushing his stock down a bit. He should be safe and make a nice recovery next week. You’re probably best of buying a little at $7 and seeing how tomorrow night pans out, he could be a bargain on Wednesday.

Brook White

She’s only been in the bottom three once, and it was at number 3. She could find herself in danger this week as Carly could put forth a huge performance. At at 3-5 spread, she’s a buy. It’s risky enough not to put a ton of weight in but small enough that it could triple if she chugs on to the top 3.

Carly Smithson

The good news: All the cards are in place for a showcase week. The bad news: People don’t like her. She could warm her way into the voters hearts with a powerhouse performance this week. Her voice is strong enough and the theme provides a lot of vocal showcases. Like Brooke, she’s also at a 3-5 spread today. She’s still a buy because she could jump up a bit this week and still has top 3 potential

PENNY STOCKS

Syesha Mercado

A 1-3 spread this week. Even with a strong week, I don’t think she can push much past that $3 buy mark. Her $1 sell would need to push up $3 to make this an attractive buy and that just isn’t likely to happen. She tried to tackle a big song when she sang that Whitney Houston song and came up average. I could see the same thing happening here. Like most of the time with “penny idols”, she’s really not worth selling or buying. Hold on if you have contracts, ignore if you don’t.

Kristy Lee Cook

She’s like herpes. You don’t want to get it and you can’t get rid of it once you do. She’s most likely gone this week anyway. Don’t buy.

Rundown Of The Spreads

Bottom Three Predictions

#3 - Jason Castro

#2 - Syesha Mercado

#1 - Kristy Lee Cook