Idol Bets

In an event that surprised none, David Cook won the 2008 American Idol competition. While IdolBets.com does not care one bit about his future career, so don’t expect to hear much about him from here on out.
We have been touting David Cooks shares since the inception of this site (and many weeks prior to this site going online). For our SimPicks, we had purchased 8 shares of him. Since we also bough shares of other contestants, we missed out on some profit but it’s all part of a hedging strategy. Overall, I suggested $398 worth of investments that netted $800. A solid 101% return on investment (ROI). Not bad in a bear market. Of course, you could have invested more or less depending on how much you wanted to throw around.

Since the work on this site is done for the season, we’ll be shifting our attention to more strategy-based posts. I may even post a premium e-book on how to bet this show. If you have a pretty good ear for talent, don’t get caught up in people, and are generally disconnected from the show, it’s not that difficult to make a killing. I want to get into some slightly more advanced betting strategies and get more into live betting to really take advantage of volatile prices. The season-finale was a great indicator of how volatile things can get towards the end. With 2 clear-cut finalists this year there wasn’t quite the shifts there could have been in round of three and four so hopefully I can get into more detail there during the “off-season”.

My next post is going to be a basic “How To” explaining signing up, getting money into your account, understanding the long-term World Sports Exchange markets and how to get involved in them. It’s pretty easy but there are a few things you should know going in.

So the Idol Finals are over and the only thing left to hear is who won.  An interesting thing happened last night in the Idols market and is definitely worth noting (I plan on writing some strategy articles here during the “offseason” that will go more in-depth on market strategies) and that is how the markets react during and right after a show.  There was a massive drop in David Cook’s stock value last night immediately following the show.

By most accounts Archuleta performed better than Cook so it’s a natural assumption to get rid of your Cook shares ASAP.  Well in doing so, people dropped the sell value of his stock from 66 to 25.  That’s a massive fall and would have been a great time to purchase some Cook shares if you actually understood how the results would turn out.  I said several weeks ago that Cook was a shoe-in.  I initially had my doubts, the biggest of which is that Archuleta would outperform him during the finals (which he did) but I later said that it wouldn’t matter.  Archuleta dug himself into such a giant hole that he never recovered from.  It really wasn’t his fault but his ridiculous personality and lack of legitimate emotion and connection with his songs doomed him.  He would need 3 more nights like last night to make up the margin Cook had built.

Because of that, I never suggested hedging your Cook shares with Archuleta shares.  It made SOME sense do hedge with Syesha shares two weeks ago, just in case but there is a big difference between hedging with $4 shares and hedging with $30 shares.  I was confident enough in Cook’s chances not to suggest even selling any of his shares.  That MAY be something you’d want to look into to reduce some of your risk but at this point, Cook looks like the winner.

In case you don’t know, DialIdol is predicting Cook to be the winner and it’s by a large enough margin to be statistically accurate and outside the margin of error.  That information is very strong and telling and should be accurate.  Unless DialIdol has decided to throw it’s credibility out the window and take advantage of the betting markets by providing false data, then Cook shares should be worth $100 at the end of tonight.  DialIdol is a pretty big reason why the Cook shares recovered nearly all of their lost value today, that and the ridiculously low price they were selling for last night.