Idol Bets

Mariah Carey week. Should make for some very interesting play outside the top 2. The girls (especially Carly) could end up with some strong performances if they play their cards right. Castro could struggle. Here is the run down:

BLUE CHIPS

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David Archuleta

Archuleta remains at the top of the market with a strong 57-62 spread. The market clearly thinks he’s the favorite, but he’s not bulletproof. His personality is grating and his repertoire limited. Not much else needs to be said at this point. Archuleta is a HOLD.

David Cook

This year’s “dark horse” slipped up bad last week but steered clear of the bottom three again - a VERY good sign for him. His prices continue to rise, as Cook is now sitting on a 23-28 spread. Hopefully you got in weeks ago when he was buying at $3 or $6. I think Cook has a strong chance at being no less than a 35% favorite to win if he makes the top two (and likely a 40-45% favorite), so he’s still a STRONG BUY candidate.

MID CAPS

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Jason Castro

A story/photo popped up today about Jason Castro: “Jason Castro May Smoke Weed”

I know, alarming. Jason Castro may smoke weed in the same way that the Yankees may play baseball or that Paula Abdul may spend 50% of her life barbiturated.

Jason is sitting on a 5-7 spread today, placing him at number three in the market but not even close to #2. Jason has strong top 3 potential. The #3 contestant will be interesting this year. With Archuleta and David Cook maintaining a stronghold on the top 2 and with Kristy Lee and Syesha as lame ducks, it’s a three way race for 2nd runner up. Castro is unique enough to distinguish himself from the others and talented enough to deserve to be there. At $7 / contract, Castro is still a decent buy candidate with a potential target spread of 12-15.

Mariah Carey Factor : Castro could slip up this week pushing his stock down a bit. He should be safe and make a nice recovery next week. You’re probably best of buying a little at $7 and seeing how tomorrow night pans out, he could be a bargain on Wednesday.

Brook White

She’s only been in the bottom three once, and it was at number 3. She could find herself in danger this week as Carly could put forth a huge performance. At at 3-5 spread, she’s a buy. It’s risky enough not to put a ton of weight in but small enough that it could triple if she chugs on to the top 3.

Carly Smithson

The good news: All the cards are in place for a showcase week. The bad news: People don’t like her. She could warm her way into the voters hearts with a powerhouse performance this week. Her voice is strong enough and the theme provides a lot of vocal showcases. Like Brooke, she’s also at a 3-5 spread today. She’s still a buy because she could jump up a bit this week and still has top 3 potential

PENNY STOCKS

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Syesha Mercado

A 1-3 spread this week. Even with a strong week, I don’t think she can push much past that $3 buy mark. Her $1 sell would need to push up $3 to make this an attractive buy and that just isn’t likely to happen. She tried to tackle a big song when she sang that Whitney Houston song and came up average. I could see the same thing happening here. Like most of the time with “penny idols”, she’s really not worth selling or buying. Hold on if you have contracts, ignore if you don’t.

Kristy Lee Cook

She’s like herpes. You don’t want to get it and you can’t get rid of it once you do. She’s most likely gone this week anyway. Don’t buy.

Rundown Of The Spreads

NAME DAVID ARCHULETA	SELL 57	BUY 62	BET IDOL ACTION Hold
DAVID COOK	23	28	Buy
JASON CASTRO	5	7	Buy
CARLY SMITHSON	3	5	Buy
BROOKE WHITE	3	5	Buy
SYESHA MERCADO	1	3	Hold
KRISTY LEE COOK	0	2	Screwed

Bottom Three Predictions

#3 - Jason Castro

#2 - Syesha Mercado

#1 - Kristy Lee Cook