Idol Bets

I did not publish any picks yesterday for one main reason - the Idol market isn’t really worth investing in right now.  David Cook is at a 58-63 spread right now and I don’t see that improving drastically enough to take the risk of it lowering.  It’s still a two man race and it doesn’t seem like idol #3 is going to move up substantially enough to warrant further speculation.

Hold onto what you have for now, you might want to sell off a few Cook shares if you have them to book a quick profit but he still is the favorite to win and if that happens, each share is worth $100.

DialIdol has Archuleta, Casto, and White as potential bottom 2 candidates.  Syesha, posting a strong performance is listed at #1 with Cook at #2.  As I said previously, Archuleta is annoying.  He started annoying me way back in the 24 idol preliminary rounds.  I guess America is a bit behind my curve but it’s drawing closer every week.  I still think he’s a top 2 finalist but his chances of winning are dwindling every time he opens his mouth or makes one of his stupid faces or they show his psycho show-biz dad in the crowd.

The market took a pretty strong shift towards David Cook with big selloffs coming from all the idols not named David. As things stand right now, Brooke and Syesha are dead. They stand little chance of cracking the top 3 and zero chance of the top two. The only major bets left at this point in the season are with David Cook and figuring out who will be number three and how much they’ll be worth when they are number three. With that said, here are the current market values:

DAVID ARCHULETA: 53-58
DAVID COOK: 33-38
JASON CASTRO: 2-4
CARLY SMITHSON: 1-3
SYESHA MERCADO: 1-3
BROOKE WHITE: 0-2

As you can see, Brooke has no resale value at all. Even if she survives this week, I doubt she’ll be able to push herself up past a $2 sell point. Same goes for Syesha, but she needs to move past a $3 sell point. Carly and Jason could both push their sell points beyond their current buys but will need to have two strong weeks coming up.

For my SimPicks this week, I’m tossing another $200 into the fray and doing it like this:

David Cook: 4 shares @ $38 = $152
Jason Castro: 5 shares @ $4 = $20
Carly Smithson: 9 shares @ $3 = $27

Cook is still the smartest choice. He still has room to grow in the top 2 and still has winning potential, which nets a $100 payout per share. Castro and Smithson are only worth investing in to see some growth if they can make the top three and net around a $5-6 sell value. Even that might be pushing it but it’s still worth the speculation.

So Tuesday’s round of seven is over as is Wednesday’s elimination show. No real surprises except that Jason Castro didn’t make the bottom three. As predicted on Monday, Castro wasn’t very good but lucky for him neither was Brooke. Syesha and Kristy rounded out the bottom three. Despite decent performances from them (at least by their standards), nobody likes them. At this point, your entire body of work starts being accounted for more and neither of them have ever been truly impressive.

David vs. David

The markets didn’t take kindly to anyone’s performance except David Cook. His spread shifted up seven points while all other idols moved down. DialIdol estimated David Cook to be at the top of Tuesday’s voting, overpowering David Archuleta. I had Cook at a minimum of $35 if he makes the top 2 but I think that’s going to edge up towards at least $45 - so he’s still a strong buy candidate at $35 right now. Archuleta’s one-trick show has been annoying me since day one. However, he’s still extremely popular and only seems to slip into second when Cook has a monster week. We’ll see how the finals go. One major issue with the Idol finals is that they have to perform some God-awful inspirational shitfest. Last year, they opened up the songwriting for the Idol finals/first-single to all songwriters as a contest. The winning entry managed to pen something as equally trite as the pros’ of years before. This year will likely be the same. For Cook, that could mean a solid #2 as Archuleta’s entire style is hand-picked for hot, sappy garbage.

Which brings us to an interesting point with the markets. At this point, it’s a two man race. The only Idol even capable of keeping up with the David’s is Carly and she is completely incapable of performing or gaining an audience. The smartest moves are to continue to buy Cook and try and figure out who’s going to be number three…and at number three you need to figure out what they’re going to be worth with little realistic chance of winning.

Blue Chips:
David Archuleta, David Cook

Mid-Caps
Jason Castro, Carly Smithson

Penny Stocks
Syesha Mercado, Brooke White

No action is really needed right now. I’ll make my SimPicks on Monday or Tuesday.

I’m going to set this up like I have $700 to spend this season. I’m blocking off $200 to spend this week. Here are my picks:

Seven Idol Week Transactions

BUY: David Cook: 4 contracts @ $28 each. Total: $112

BUY: Jason Castro: 6 contracts @ $7 each. Total: $42

BUY: Brooke White: 5 contracts @ $5 each. Total: $25

BUY: Carly Smithson: 4 contracts @ $4 each. Total: $20

Total purchases: $199

Current Portfolio Value

Money Not Invested: $501

Money Invested: $149

Current Holdings:

Starting Value: $700

Current Value: $649

Net Gains: -$50 (-0.077%)

Closing Comments

The loss right now is due entirely to the spread (the fact that you can’t immediately sell for what you bought at). We’ll see how this progresses after tonight and tomorrow night. I’ll update tomorrow to see if anything is worth buying or selling as well as Thursday

Enjoy the show.

Mariah Carey week. Should make for some very interesting play outside the top 2. The girls (especially Carly) could end up with some strong performances if they play their cards right. Castro could struggle. Here is the run down:

BLUE CHIPS

David Archuleta

Archuleta remains at the top of the market with a strong 57-62 spread. The market clearly thinks he’s the favorite, but he’s not bulletproof. His personality is grating and his repertoire limited. Not much else needs to be said at this point. Archuleta is a HOLD.

David Cook

This year’s “dark horse” slipped up bad last week but steered clear of the bottom three again - a VERY good sign for him. His prices continue to rise, as Cook is now sitting on a 23-28 spread. Hopefully you got in weeks ago when he was buying at $3 or $6. I think Cook has a strong chance at being no less than a 35% favorite to win if he makes the top two (and likely a 40-45% favorite), so he’s still a STRONG BUY candidate.

MID CAPS

Jason Castro

A story/photo popped up today about Jason Castro: “Jason Castro May Smoke Weed”

I know, alarming. Jason Castro may smoke weed in the same way that the Yankees may play baseball or that Paula Abdul may spend 50% of her life barbiturated.

Jason is sitting on a 5-7 spread today, placing him at number three in the market but not even close to #2. Jason has strong top 3 potential. The #3 contestant will be interesting this year. With Archuleta and David Cook maintaining a stronghold on the top 2 and with Kristy Lee and Syesha as lame ducks, it’s a three way race for 2nd runner up. Castro is unique enough to distinguish himself from the others and talented enough to deserve to be there. At $7 / contract, Castro is still a decent buy candidate with a potential target spread of 12-15.

Mariah Carey Factor : Castro could slip up this week pushing his stock down a bit. He should be safe and make a nice recovery next week. You’re probably best of buying a little at $7 and seeing how tomorrow night pans out, he could be a bargain on Wednesday.

Brook White

She’s only been in the bottom three once, and it was at number 3. She could find herself in danger this week as Carly could put forth a huge performance. At at 3-5 spread, she’s a buy. It’s risky enough not to put a ton of weight in but small enough that it could triple if she chugs on to the top 3.

Carly Smithson

The good news: All the cards are in place for a showcase week. The bad news: People don’t like her. She could warm her way into the voters hearts with a powerhouse performance this week. Her voice is strong enough and the theme provides a lot of vocal showcases. Like Brooke, she’s also at a 3-5 spread today. She’s still a buy because she could jump up a bit this week and still has top 3 potential

PENNY STOCKS

Syesha Mercado

A 1-3 spread this week. Even with a strong week, I don’t think she can push much past that $3 buy mark. Her $1 sell would need to push up $3 to make this an attractive buy and that just isn’t likely to happen. She tried to tackle a big song when she sang that Whitney Houston song and came up average. I could see the same thing happening here. Like most of the time with “penny idols”, she’s really not worth selling or buying. Hold on if you have contracts, ignore if you don’t.

Kristy Lee Cook

She’s like herpes. You don’t want to get it and you can’t get rid of it once you do. She’s most likely gone this week anyway. Don’t buy.

Rundown Of The Spreads

Bottom Three Predictions

#3 - Jason Castro

#2 - Syesha Mercado

#1 - Kristy Lee Cook